One ounce, many futures
A sketch of what a troy ounce of gold might be worth, in US dollars. History on the left, a cloud of simulated futures on the right — looking the same distance either way.
Spot
$4,497
20 years back & forward
Starting from $4,497, the typical simulated ounce in 20 years is around $24,025. Half the paths land between $14,417 and $40,087. Most — eight in ten — finish somewhere between $8,544 and $68,584. Swings are sized from the last 20 years of real gold prices (18% a year).
With the switches you left on, the typical path drifts about 8.5% a year over 20 years, from global M2 at 7.5% a year; central banks taking 425 t (-48 t vs the 2010–21 pace); gold ETFs taking 175 t (+75 t vs the 2022–26 pace); the usual seasonal wiggle. Those three bids are held constant — they do not fade toward an older average as the horizon lengthens.
Cautious is the 10th percentile · typical is the middle · hopeful is the 90th
| When | Cautious | Typical | Hopeful |
|---|---|---|---|
| After 1 year | $3,900 | $4,886 | $6,079 |
| After 2 years | $3,828 | $5,264 | $7,191 |
| After 3 years | $3,941 | $5,851 | $8,503 |
| After 4 years | $4,076 | $6,352 | $9,970 |
| After 5 years | $4,248 | $6,930 | $11,511 |
| After 6 years | $4,465 | $7,367 | $12,620 |
| After 7 years | $4,634 | $8,161 | $14,304 |
| After 8 years | $4,827 | $9,093 | $16,535 |
| After 9 years | $5,106 | $9,870 | $18,536 |
| After 10 years | $5,358 | $10,738 | $21,368 |
| After 11 years | $5,430 | $11,482 | $23,556 |
| After 12 years | $5,654 | $12,327 | $26,706 |
| After 13 years | $6,096 | $13,421 | $29,456 |
| After 14 years | $6,399 | $14,749 | $32,969 |
| After 15 years | $6,551 | $16,275 | $37,892 |
| After 16 years | $7,407 | $17,657 | $43,318 |
| After 17 years | $7,408 | $18,899 | $48,570 |
| After 18 years | $8,092 | $20,760 | $53,811 |
| After 19 years | $8,413 | $22,151 | $60,381 |
| After 20 years | $8,544 | $24,025 | $68,584 |